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« on: December 09, 2015, 08:33:16 pm »
I think Flash will really die the day HTML5 perfectly supports EVERYTHING Flash had to offer and you can convert ANY swf with a single click automatically with zero unexpected issues or browsers will even be able to convert them automatically making the plugin obsolete, and the whole legacy content available without the plugin. At that point, .swf will die. Until then it won't, because Armor Games, Kongregate and so on are not going to drop it since their survival depends on it. And as rob says, Adobe won't do it until content creators are going to use it.
Either what I have described or developers make Flash obsolete as the vast majority of them have moved to HTML5 or WebGL. But again, the legacy compatibility is still essential, there's just too much Flash content produced in the past that users still consume. Until browsers can display it without the Flash plugin somehow, if that's ever possible, Flash will be a thing. I think.
HTML5 just isn't as good as Flash so far. Very limited in comparison.
Portals still have most of their games in Flash. If you make a decent Flash game, you can sell it and make money with it through sponsors, and I think this will stay so for the next few years until THE ABOVE EVENT happens. Stencyl allows us to make Flash games without knowing AS3. Sounds brilliant to me.
I have wondered for some time whether it was better to go with Stencyl and produce a Flash and mobile/desktop game, or use Construct or something similar to export to HTML5 first. I am going with Stencyl and going to publish my games as Flash first through the big portals. Obviously there is a standard of quality/appeal, and that's your job. Second option would be Unity, which is coming up with support with WebGL and thus content with no plugin needed. You can create in Unity and publish to a number of platforms. That would be my second option. I think the products who thought Flash was going to die soon and HTML5 would be "the future" (they said that more than 5 years ago, and Flash is still alive) were just ahead of themselves. What matters is that a Flash game can offer a quality HTML5 still can't, and that the big online portals still have most of their games in Flash. Really let that sink in for a second. Go to Armor Games or Kongregate and correct me if most of the games aren't Flash. They seem to be to me. Even if Adobe were to drop .swf export, which it won't anytime soon, then creators would keep producing with the already available tools until my first situation hasn't come true.
Oh, another thing that could happen is that all browsers simply ban Flash. Maybe this could happen. Then Flash will be dead. Until then, obviously Flash was very much loved as a scripting language and tool for creating games, as most games on the web still today are nothing but Flash.
Also the idea of playing html5 games on mobiles is silly. Constant performance issues. Not worth it: make an app instead.
if I said something incorrect I'd gladly be corrected
how likely is it that all browsers ban Flash?